Seven Generational Ruminations

Limited supply of oil

The U.S. passed its peak of oil production in 1970. During the dual oil crises of the 1970's the U.S. imported 35% of its oil needs, and today it imports nearly 70% of its oil needs. The world oil peak is due to happen relatively soon, either it has already happened, or it will occur within the next 10-20 years.

Oil availability and price follows a clear supply/demand arrangement.. the demand for oil is inexorably rising as population increases and as oil-burning technology is more widely deployed around the world. Especially as India and China transform from 3rd world to modernized industrialized nations their relative use of oil will increase per-capita. However when an economist discusses "supply/demand" as a way of controlling price the arguments assume an infinite total supply. However with oil derived from fossil times, the total supply is limited to the amount in the ground, the total production capacity is related to the quality of the oil fields, and when the oil runs out it will require millions of years for the planet to recapture the carbon and turn it into oil again.

This makes for a number of side effects:

• Balance of trade is skewed due to the massive importation of oil, and the world is shipping tons of money to OPEC countries
• OPEC countries have a greater level of influence over the well being of the U.S. economy
• Greater energy use in transporting oil further distances
• Greater chance for mishap with an oil tanker due to greater transportation distances

Electric vehicles do not (directly) rely on oil to move. Because the electrons can come from any source it gives society huge flexibility in choosing the source of the electrons.

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Health

Burning oil produces a wide range of poisonous chemicals in the exhaust. Studies have shown these poisonous chemicals to cause a range of illnesses from asthma to cancer. Burning less oil will decrease the amount of poisonous vapors in the atmosphere.

Electric vehicles do not (directly) rely on oil to move. The electrons can come from any source, including ones who do not burn fossil fuels. So long as the majority of vehicles are burning fossil fuels the quality of the air will be negatively impacted, we all will be breathing these poisons into our bodies, and our health will be negatively impacted.

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Environment

Again, burning fossil fuels produces a range of poisonous chemicals. These go into the air, water, ground, and end up in our food.

Burning fossil fuels means desequestering carbon that had millions of years ago been plants and animals. The carbon which had formerly been those plants and animals is being added to the ecosphere, and increasing the total amount of carbon in the ecosphere. Carbon levels are directly responsible for effects like global temperature.

The mining, refining, transportation, and consumption of fossil fuels involves occasional accidents that spill these fuels into the environment. Crude oil is highly toxic and directly negatively impacts the wellbeing of wildlife. Oil spills are difficult to clean up and the effects last for years.

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